Causation, Correlation, and Ice Cream Sundaes

Published January 15, 2009 @ 10:24AM PT

vanilla ice cream with strawberries My sense of cause and effect in day-to-day situations is better now than when I was a child, but it's still pretty sketchy. Hey Dora, if you put a greasy potato pancake in the toaster oven naked it will drip oil on the element and cause a fire (oooooo is that why the house is all smokey?) --yup that happened a few weeks ago. And yup, that really is better than when I was a child and thought that whether I'd have a good day or not was dependent on what color "fireworks" I saw when I pressed on my eyes in the morning, and everything else "just happened," like weather.

Of course there is a causal relationship between flaming oil and smoke (i.e. flaming oil causes smoke to occur), even if I kind of missed it at the time. And of course there is no relationship of any sort between the "fireworks" and having a good day. But rarely in the world are the relationships so clear. This is because the world is fantastically complex, full of hidden variables, and much of what happens is highly correlated but not directly causal.

Fact: Ice cream sales are highest on certain days of the year.
Fact: Murder rates are highest on certain days of the year.
Fact: Ice cream sales and murder rates are often highest on the same days of the year!
Conclusion: Eating ice cream causes murder!

Analysis: Well, no, not quite. High temperature is really a cause of both the rise in ice cream sales and the rise in murder rates. There is definitely a relationship between the ice cream sales and murder rates though, it's just not directly causal; rising ice cream sales and rising murder rates are highly correlated through their common (but hidden) causal factor temperature. While correlation does imply that two variables are related (and that may even be, though not in this case, ultimately causal) it does not automatically mean that one variable must be directly determining the behavior of the other variable.

Further, just because temperature is "a" cause for ice cream sales and murder rates does not mean temperature is the only cause. Other factors such as availability of ice cream, availability of leisure time, and cultural norms regarding the eating of ice cream are just a few other factors besides temperatures that may "cause" trends in ice cream consumption.

When considering any causal type claims related to autism, be they something like watching TV causes autism, or something like a therapy causes an improvement in a child, it is crucial to question whether the relationship is in fact causal, whether it is merely correlated (potentially causal, but not necessarily--there may be other reasons for the apparent relationship!), or whether it is purely coincidental (not really related at all). It is also crucial to consider the possibility of more than one cause for any given phenomena. The media loves to make strong statements about X causes Y; however, science and nature are rarely able to provide that same degree of certainty.

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Comments (27)

I found out not too long ago that if you leave the stove on (lit, not just the gas), and you put your dirty dinnerplate on top of it and forget to turn it off, the plate eventually explodes, but your kitchen will smell really nice, like barbecued food.

*coughs*

Ok, but I really wanted to say that I love this post :D.

Posted by Norah vd Stel on 01/15/2009 @ 11:33AM PT
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@Norah vd Stel, I too have learned that... um... more than once :-)

Posted by Dora Raymaker on 01/15/2009 @ 12:00PM PT
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This is an awesome post! I am actually laughing at my desk. Plus, I think this the assumption that correlation equals causation is something most people are guilty of. I feel like a lot of scary medical journalism feeds into that.

Also, if it makes you feel better, I once gave myself second degree burns trying to make homemade potato chips. Never toss potatos in hot oil with an enthusiastic flourish, pretending to be Emeril.

Posted by Amanda Kloer on 01/15/2009 @ 12:21PM PT
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@Amanda Kloer, you said, "Never toss potatos in hot oil with an enthusiastic flourish, pretending to be Emeril." I am totally ROTFL, thanks! It may not have made me feel better about my kitchen gimpiness, but it sure cheered me up in general!

Posted by Dora Raymaker on 01/15/2009 @ 01:38PM PT
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I very much appreciate this as I have experienced frustration and even anger interacting with friends and families affected by autism who believe in their right to a pet theory (and subsequent course of treatment) without affording the same respect to others (I'm thinking specifically of the vaccination debate.) I think more openness to all the possibilities as well as more respect and compassion for an incredibly wide range of experience would go a long way to better address common goals.

Posted by Aimee Jurista on 01/15/2009 @ 02:03PM PT
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Parents may not be completely right to say vaccinations CAUSED their child(ren)'s autism. At least as wrong is anyone who declares autism is not caused by vaccines. Unless and until we know exactly what causes autism, to the point of being able to predict with accuracy who WILL develop autism, no one can say what the contributing factors are with any certainty.
Many parents know that vaccines were related to their child's autism. No one has been able to prove that there is absolutely no correlation. No one has proved or can prove the children would have developed autism without vaccination.
By the same token, no one can prove that they have avoided disease because they are vaccinated. In face, whenever there is an outbreak of measles, for example, the majority of those who contract measles are vaccinated.

Posted by Cheryl White on 01/15/2009 @ 04:24PM PT
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Maybe just something to ponder, or simply deny.
It is all our choice...
Dutch Association for Conscientious Vaccination
Independant Vaccine Study
Roosendaal, 1 December 2004
The NVKP (Nederlandse Vereniging Kritisch Prikken) [in English: Dutch Association for
Conscientious Vaccination] is an independent association made up of therapists, doctors and
parents, amongst others. The NVKP’s aim is freedom of choice for parents when it comes to
vaccinating their children, based on honest, comprehensive and independent information. We
view the current ‘one size fits all’ vaccination policy with great concern. The NVKP is therefore
urging the adoption of more thorough independent research by representatives from different
disciplines.

http://www.vaccination.inoz.com/Vacc%20vs%20unvacc%20results%20survey.pdf
----------------------------------------------------------
Comment on Autism[change.gov] 1-17-09]
If we do not stop the "Global" increase of "Autism," we are told by some medical experts that by simple common sense tells us that governments will simply cease their ability to function. With India recording the incidence of "Autism" at one in thirty-nine [1:39], a simple ten year old child can see the "writing on the wall."

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/25/2009 @ 12:32PM PT
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I think what parents have said, and what has been quite frequently noted in the media, is the report of the "onset" of "symptoms of autism" after a child receives a vaccination. One thing occurs (a child receives a vaccination) and then another is noticed (the "onset" of "symptoms of autism").
I think there is some evidence that people have "avoided disease" due to having been vaccinated.

Posted by Kristina Chew on 01/15/2009 @ 04:39PM PT
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The media[mainstream media] is basically owned by big business and do their bidding. You will only hear what they want you to hear. Enough said...

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/25/2009 @ 05:21PM PT
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'I think there is some evidence that people have "avoided disease" due to having been vaccinated.'

In the same vain there is some evidence that people have 'avoided autism' due to not being vaccinated (look at statistics of unvaccinated populations). I am open to all the possibilities surrounding the causes and treatments of autism but I do believe as many have stated that you have to look at real not junk science and not dismiss theories that aren't in the financial or political interest of big business or government agencies.

Posted by Dawn Weismer on 01/16/2009 @ 09:04AM PT
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Dawn, what are those statistics?

And there is a ton of evidence suggesting not only no correlation but also zero causation.

There are also several disorders with an established genetic basis that have symptom onset, or obvious symptom onset, coincident with timepoints in the vaccine schedule. One has to wonder what things would be like had we not already identified the associated genes for those disorders. I guess we'd be blaming those on vaccines, too.

Posted by Emily Willingham on 01/16/2009 @ 02:00PM PT
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Dutch Association for Conscientious VaccinationIndependant Vaccine StudyRoosendaal, 1 December 2004The NVKP (Nederlandse Vereniging Kritisch Prikken) [in English: Dutch Association forConscientious Vaccination] is an independent association made up of therapists, doctors andparents, amongst others. The NVKP’s aim is freedom of choice for parents when it comes tovaccinating their children, based on honest, comprehensive and independent information. Weview the current ‘one size fits all’ vaccination policy with great concern. The NVKP is thereforeurging the adoption of more thorough independent research by representatives from differentdisciplines.

http://www.vaccination.inoz.com/Vacc%20vs%20unvacc%20results%20survey.pdf

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/17/2009 @ 06:28PM PT
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Just a short excerpt from the link below.This article makes it simple...Why Don't the Amish Have Autistic Children?Autism is a difficult disorder to miss, as it is characterized by noticeably abnormal or impaired development in social interaction and communication and a markedly restricted array of activities and interests. And while scientific consensus claims autism has been around for millennia at generally the same prevalence, that prevalence is now considered to be one in every 166 children born in the United States. Therefore, with this devastating statistic in mind, one reporter set out to analyze the autism rates among Amish communities. Why? Because perhaps searching for autistic Amish children would reveal clues to the cause of autism ... and it did.

http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2005/05/04/amish-autism-part-one.aspx

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/17/2009 @ 06:36PM PT
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*I* think it's all a sinister plot by the Sikorsky Corporation: post hoc, ergo 'copter hoc...

Posted by Phil Schwarz on 01/17/2009 @ 11:05PM PT
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@Lucien: Oh gods, you mean they've arrived ibn my nice, sane, sensible country too! I'm disgusted.

Although of course, it's telling that barely a soul here has heard of them yet when they've been around for years.

Posted by Norah vd Stel on 01/18/2009 @ 04:00AM PT
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Lucien, that assertion about the Amish has been addressed already. It's not true that the Amish don't vaccinate, and it's not true that they don't have autistic children.

Posted by Emily Willingham on 01/18/2009 @ 05:58PM PT
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Emily I'm interested to hear where you got your information since it is in stark contrast to the Amish and Menonite populations in the Maryland and PA area that my midwife works with who do not vaccinate.
Personally I was thinking more of the interviews with the HomeFirst physicians in the Chicago area who have a large clientele of families that do not vaccinate. Look them up, it is thought-provoking especially since they could more easily be contrasted with the rest of society as they aren't a distinct culture or geographically separated from peers yet have very few cases of Autism as well as other diseases of the immune system.

Posted by Dawn Weismer on 01/18/2009 @ 06:56PM PT
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@Emily W.
I guess we need to see statistics of a large population of unvaccinated, with a mix of boys and girls possibly 1,000 over a 10 year period with those overseers being the parents and not being tied to anything related to vaccines. Is this data available now? If it is not then there is no more argument.

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/18/2009 @ 07:06PM PT
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Wow. This is exactly the kind of heels-dug-in surety I was referring to in my post. Instead of arguing about who's right and who's wrong, can't we look for common threads of support?

Everyone, and I mean everyone, can point to this study or that anecdote to support their theory. But when everyone goes to their respective corner, sure of their position, unwilling to open their minds to the FACT that we simply cannot say with certainty--or even likelihood--that one factor or another causes autism, we do ourselves and our children a disservice by misdirecting our energy toward pointless tit-for-tat.

Believe what you want. Put your energy into exploring whatever avenue it is you feel is important for you to explore. Just do me, and everyone else affected by autism, the same courtesy without anger and judgment. This path is tough enough to hoe without it.

Posted by Aimee Jurista on 01/18/2009 @ 08:22PM PT
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Dawn, see the quote on another related topic here from Lisa Jo Rudy and About.com. This topic has been addressed repeatedly and far more accurately, your midwife's experience notwithstanding.

What, exactly, is a "disease of the immune system"? And "interviews" do not somehow add up to fact. Got any STUDIES?

And Lucien, the large population studies have been done.

Aimee, it'd be nice if everyone could just drop their weapons and focus on the task at hand, but when people keep bringing up misinformation and trotting it out as fact, we keep walking backwards. For me it's not a matter of "belief," but for many others, it is, and that's where the problems start. As for anger, I'm not angry, although as a scientist I find this willful ignorance annoying. Regarding judgmental, considering the fact that my assertions regarding a nonlink between vaccines and autism have brought a range of accusations against me that include assumptions that I have vaccinated all my children like a blind sheep, that I don't let them play outside "in the sun," that I feed them red food dye, that I didn't breastfeed, ad nauseaum. It's actually rather ironic since I used midwives for all three, birthed one at home, didn't do several vaccines at all and delayed others, breastfed consistently, never fed them anything but organic foods, and have them outside probably more than most children are outside.

It's funny what assumptions will do to people. And it's not so funny what fear will do. This Amish assertion is just one example of how entrenched misinformation can be. Just today, someone tried to post a writeup to my blog about a recent California study that had an associated news release claiming that the study points to environmental factors as causative in autism. I think they posted that because they think I don't "believe" in a role for environmental factors, although I've repeatedly stated that no gene is an island and expression is undoubtedly environmentally influenced...but anyway, the point is and has been made here already that THE PAPER NEVER SAYS THAT ABOUT ENVIRONMENT. Yet now, it will likely become just as entrenched out here on the "Internets" as that nonsense about the Amish or that "information" about vaccines.

Posted by Emily Willingham on 01/19/2009 @ 07:24AM PT
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I should add that if anyone's looking for "environmental causes" --or more accurately, FACTORS--in California, they need to look at PBDEs. There are several open-access papers from Environmental Health Perspectives finding a terrifyingly high concentrations of PBDEs (and some other things) in the breastmilk of California women. Then, you can look up when PBDEs came into common use and check out the curve for the presence of PBDEs in the environment. Sure, it's correlation right now (except for a few mechanistic studies), but if you want to stop wasting time and find environmental factors, quit fooling around with vaccines and start worry-warting about PBDEs.

Oh, and do some research on dopamine,while you're at it.

Posted by Emily Willingham on 01/19/2009 @ 07:29AM PT
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Emily, I completely understand and I agree with your position. I just get very frustrated when no other discussion is possible when the debate gets hopelessly sidetracked into the same old inflammatory debates, even when the subject of the discussion has nothing to do with one position or another regarding vaccines. All it takes is one single-minded person to repeatedly take a discussion off-topic, and the result is that every topic is shoved into the same framework. It's just such as shame, and frustrating as hell for those of us who want to talk about more than one aspect of a phenomenally complex subject.

Posted by Aimee Jurista on 01/19/2009 @ 08:01AM PT
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Wow Emily and Aimee, you two are a prime example of double talk. I think there are a multitude of factors causing Autism and they should ALL be looked at for their interrelation. PBDE's are part of environmental factors just as ingredients in vaccines are. Vaccines are introduced to cause a reaction in the body. What makes you think everyone reacts the same and only has the desired result? There are also a ton of other environmental and genetic factors that need to be explored to find out if there are specific groups that are susceptible much like genetic cancer triggers.
I thought the point was that nobody knows what causes Autism and that real unbiased research should be performed to find out. I also believe you need to do your own research and find what rings true to you or your experiences; that is the only way you will find your own truth and why I won't hand feed you statistics and studies that you would blow off without any real science of your own. My hunch is that they will find that Autism and the Spectrum disorders are currently a catch-all for multiple disorders caused by individual factors, much like the SIDS debate. But you'd have to be open-minded to contemplate that and not get sidetracked by your own pet projects. Aimee, I won't be reading any more of your blogs as you are now transparent in your thoughts and I find myself uninterested in them. I wish you the best in health.

Posted by Dawn Weismer on 01/19/2009 @ 09:31AM PT
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Dawn, I can't imagine that you read or understood anything I said if you think that I am espousing that vaccines should *not* be part of autism research. That you would misinterpret my posts to support that notion, then follow up by saying that you will now refuse to read what I have to say based solely on what you perceive as a different viewpoint is precisely the reactionary response that saddens me within the autism community. It just seems so closed-minded and absolutist. In fact, the reason I specifically did not reveal my positon on the issue of vaccines was because I knew that if my *opinion*--not "objective fact," because I am open to ANY AND ALL research on the subject--were known, my point would be lost to those who refuse to accept any notions *of any kind*, vaccine-related or not, based entirely on that prejudice. In fact, before I so much as hinted at my opinion, both sides went right to their corners, dug in their heels, and began fighting to prove their own point regardless of the op-ed in question and my post about what it was that frustrated me about the way people behave when possible correlation is misconstrued as irrefutable fact.

It saddens me that this conversation has done nothing to dispel my original point, but has only reinforced it. I look forward to the day when supporting each other is more important than being "right."

Posted by Aimee Jurista on 01/19/2009 @ 11:03AM PT
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Dawn, you're just not making any sense and assuming things I have not said. That makes it impossible to engage in any kind of meaningful discussion. It appears you have done the same thing with what Aimee said simply because she agreed with me on a single point. Just as no one responds physiologically in exactly the same way to vaccines, no one who presents with a specific opinion can be boxed in with some presumed list of associated commonalities. The presence of one factor does not somehow confirm the presence of all others you think are associated. It's funny that you argue for open-mindedness while simultaneously threatening to no longer read any of Aimee's blogs because she doesn't agree with you. Irony much? The really funny thing is, I agree with you to some extent on the following statement: "My hunch is that they will find that Autism and the Spectrum disorders are currently a catch-all for multiple disorders caused by individual factors, much like the SIDS debate." And you know what? I'm just woman and scientist and open-minded enough to say that. It's all part of my firm belief in real discussion. The problem is, it's difficult to have one of those through all of the strident, ignorant, fearful shrieking about impossible conspiracy theories presented with a veritable forest of exclamation points.

As for accusing me or Aimee or anyone else of "double talk," that's simply bizarre. You make no sense.

Posted by Emily Willingham on 01/19/2009 @ 06:00PM PT
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Okay, here's my dumb theory about why people in my family are autistic. We all have genes that are "turned off" because we no longer need them as we evolve.

I used to do a lot of wild animal rescues. While nursing some raccoons back to health, I thought about how they were as smart as dogs but they had delicate hyper-aware temperaments. Too bad that they looked so darned cute that you want to just hug and cuddle them but they are like miniature bears and would be pretty upset.

So now I'm wondering if we have a series of hyper-aware genes that most humans have turned off because we don't live in caves surrounded by preditors any longer. Maybe autistic people have some of those genes still turned on.

That's my theory and I'm sticking with it because raccoons are so cute! And so are my kids.

Posted by B B on 01/25/2009 @ 10:30AM PT
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I will just post this:
Some experts even voice the possibilities of overwhelming sovereign governments ability to function from simply extrapolating the present numbers of Autistic children being diagnosed with this condition which some say have reached one in one hundred and fifty[1:150] here in the U.S. and one in every thirty nine[1:39] in India. Is the writing on the wall? Enough said.

We can all use our own "common sense" of judgement, but then most have been indoctrinated from paid TV adds.

Posted by Lucien Beauley on 01/25/2009 @ 01:26PM PT
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Dora is committed to improving quality of life for individuals on the autistic spectrum--including herself! She is Co-director of the Academic Autistic Spectrum Partnership in Research and Education and a member of the Autistic Self Advocacy Network's Board of Directors.